indonesia economy's blog

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

commodity :: Bullish on coal price

Kontan, 13 February 2008

Following massive increase in oil price; coal begin to experience scarcity world wide. Coal price has accounted highest growth in history as it increase from USD 89,85/mt in Januari 2008 to USD 127,6/mt. Analyst predict this will trigger tendency to export coal and lead Indonesia towards another chapter of energy crisis. Ironically, ID gov's seem less anticipated the fact.

:: suggested research link

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/coalprice.html
http://www.coalindoenergy.com/
http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/data/pdf/159.pdf

:: please comment on broken link

Outlook :: Increasing Debt burden

Kompas Update, 12 February 2008

As stated by General Director of Debt Management at Ministry of Finance, there is an increase in due debt payment in account of exchange rate movement; but however since there is also an increase in debt draw down the overall picture will be likely unaffected. As presented in hearing with tenth commision of the parlemen (Komisi XI DPR); net overseas finance in state budget (APBN) will have an uplift of 4,5 trio IDR; from 16,7 trio IDR to 21,2 trio IDR. On other occassion, Kusfiardi, Coordinator of anti-debt Coalition said that moratorium is the only way that gov. should seek in order to relieve debt burden and also gov. are required to maintain more controlled exchange rate to preserve stability.

Investment :: ID Gov's : Newmont fail on divesting ownership to local

Kontan, 12 February 2008

Angered by Newmont [NNT] persistence on divesting 10% of its ownership to local, Gov's official send a letter claiming that NNT default on the issue. According to contract NNT was supposed to divest 7% of its share worth USD 282 Mio on 2007 and 3% of its share worth USD 109 Mio on 2006. Official has stated that NNT has deadline of February 22, 2008.

If NNT fail to perform on this issue, Gov's are most likely to cancel its contract with NNT.

NNT comment on slow divestiture was because of the price of the share, NNT still no deal of private co's teaming with local authorities having price as negotiated with indonesian gov's official.

:: Suggested Research Link:

http://www.newmont.com
http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=19257&sn=Detail
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newmont_Mining
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NEM

:: please comment on broken link

Outlook :: ID Gov's on 2008 Economic Condition

Kontan, 12 February 2008

Though most of official's pencil-paper calculation shows that 2008 is going to be a rough ride, government still shows confidence thus setting target for economic growth to be higher
than it was on the previous year.

Ministry of Finance and Central Bank setting target of 6,2-6,7% a year, while Bappenas (Beurau for National Planning) set an eye on 6,3%. Growth was based on government spending, therefore the punctuality is the key issue here (referring to previous year lag on government spending).

:: Suggested Research Link:

www.sinarharapan.co.id/berita/0712/05/eko01.html
www.detikfinance.com/index.php/detik.read/tahun/2008/bulan/01/tgl/13/time/141152/idnews/878312/idkanal/4
www.iei.or.id/publicationfiles/Prospek%20Ekonomi%20Global,%20Indonesia,%20dan%20Fiskal%202008.pdf
www.anggaran.depkeu.go.id/web-print-list.asp?ContentId=177
www.bisnis.com/pls/portal30/url/page/bisnis_indonesia_harian_detail?vnw_lang_id=2&ptopik=A03&cdat...

:: please comment on broken link