A Good Day to Die [in The Crisis]

Die.... no man! seriously, that's just a bombastic title to distract you [honestly, honour yours and others life]. Now i want to talk something about Indonesian economy again. This time about indonesian company profit.

Well as you my fellow analyst may aware 2007-2008 truly is a golden period for Indonesia, after recovered from a monetary crisis started at 1998, Indonesian firm finally could move on and focus on expansion once again [rather than trying to fix the 1998 mistake], banks credit growth achieve its peak at this period, And it is very lucky for us that the US crisis got it's final breakout on the 4th quarter of this financial year. Assuming the growth was good in the previous quarter, i bet you that there will be a nice amount of shiny golden -great growth- financial statement for this financial year. This could be a good boost to stock market [however the final statement usually out at March].

Look at the fact i gather from detikfinance.com [you can search for the ticker abreviation in Yahoo! Finance [add .jk suffix]] :
- CMNP gain IDR 92 bn for it's 3rd quarter profit [76% from target]
- Lippo Karawaci had a y-o-y profit growth of 14%
- UNTR book profit of IDR 2 tn for it's 3rd quarter [y-o-y rise for 89%]
- Astra International profit is IDR 9 bn higher that it was on the previous year

Just hope guys!!! this crisis period is not long enough to crush those achievement. I hope in 2009 companies have enough time to fix things destroyed in the current crisis before the annual financial report made [for 2009 financial year].

Privy the Grey News Site

There is always a room for a creativity in blog, won't you agree with that?

Still in my relaxation period, from world financial crisis that affect all that is dear to me, i find it very amusing to walk around blog from all over the world. I gladly report to you that i found this blog Privy, I don't know, my 6th sense telling me that this blog owned by Indian or at least a Pakistani blogger (i get that feeling from pictures displayed by the web). What get my attention most was the Financial Crisis tag (in the sidebar). Well if you want to keep relax i guess you should get away from this tag, since it welcome us with many (so many) sad stories about how the crisis affect company and individual in the most sad manner.

for the owner, i salute you that you gather so much about how the crisis affect people. And for the blog, i can say that you have a nice and decent taste for blog facing. not to shabby, not at all. just that your website giving me creeps of sad emotion (may be because of the grey thing), and this is enhancing the "financial crisis tag effect".

btw, that's a compliment OK

Bliss and Bless: Indonesian Economy vs US Subprime crisis

Saving by Moslem's Holiday indonesian market did not experience any massive volatility caused by crisis in US. last night (05-10-2008 approx. 11 PM) I watch press release by Indonesian ministry of finance, ministry of economy and central bank. It's kinda to state that government has perfect insight of the crisis and fully aware of it's impact possibility upon indonesian economy.

Central Bank Governor Mr. Boediono stated that the crucial part of surviving the crisis was :

1. maintain a positive current account (by expanding export and limit import)
2. maintain a sustainable credit growth (current credit growth was 36% y-o-y, central bank sees that it needs to slow down to approx. 6% y-o-y, this policy most likely to anticipate liquidity squish caused by market conservatism upon the crisis).

as far i can understand, i'm fully agree with government about the current condition, we're still good to go but we should anticipate for contagion effect, in this case by fighting liquidity squish both for domestic currency (by limit credit expansion) and foreign currency (by promote export).

If you ask me what next, to be honest i do not know. Since that's all depends on the market now. Depends on the result of maintaining current account we will see up and down in rupiah's exchange rate that's for sure. And depends on the credit growth reform we will see (in my opinion) slowdown in economic growth. But how the swing up and down is completely up to the market to decide. Yes, please play safe these days, there are panic people out there, and it is a bliss and bless for us not to be panic (now).

opinion :: price hiking in Indonesia

Just this weekend me and my family go shopping for our routine consumables. Usually it cost about somewhere between 250K to 300K IDR for 2 weeks consumables consist of my baby's consumables (diaper, milk, cotton balls, etc) and few goods for me and wife, But at that time it cost me nearly 500K IDR for my usual stuff. It worry me so i collect few fact on Indonesia's Inflation.


Judging from the trend it is obvious that we experiencing a sharp rising in inflation, not that spiral inflation high or one-shot inflation high like it is in the past, but still it's a price hike. You can fetch the inflation detail here it's in Bahasa thought, so here is the summary of it as of January 2008 :

• Food 2,77 percent,
  
• Processed Food, Cigarette and Tobacco 2,02 percent,
  
• Housing, water, electricity, oil and gas 1,80 percent,
  
• Cloth 2,31 percent,
  
• Health 0,72 percent,
  
• Education, Recreation and Sport 0,01 percent
• Financial Service, Transportation and Communication 0,24 percent.

And now for the worst part of this log. I just found that in accordance to the inflation fact, Central bank has expected to raise the interest rate. This would mean a slowdown in our economy since ID's economy still recovering from 1998's crisis that LDR is plummeted to lower than 50%, These days we experience a relatively high growth for fact that lower rate had lure more businessman expand their business using the bank's money (debt).