Warren Buffet Go Shopping for Energy Stocks

It's in the news, The Trader Guru Warren Buffet start a hunt on Energy stocks. Using his financial Company's Berkshire Hathaway, he acquire 17,5 million of Conoco Shares. Could it means bottom has reached ?

However, the tycoon has made some statement he is doing this for a long term stake. Just curious how long is his long term anyway. For your insight my fellow reader, these days, oil exporting nation suffer for a massive decrease in oil price caused by economic slowdown in many major-oil-importing-nation, just go googling, you'll find news saying that Japan, German, Britain has gone to depression.

For Indonesia, this could be good, since we are a net importing nation. Well, at least theoretically.

what if the worst happen to you

I read in the news lately that fed rates cut have stimulate further economic expansion in US, this is truly a good news. I hope that there will be much more good news then. By rates cut, company will be encourage to expand it's business (price for having debts will be less expensive). Therefore more jobs will be created, more consumption triggered, and thus the economy expand.

But that story is just some ideal, no body knows how some factors affect economy. the above paragraph is only held true assuming ceteris paribus (other factor remain constant). We still have no vision what the tomorrow will be. Just in case you ended jobless in this shaky moment, here some nice blogs on how to earn from Internet.

It's make money on line blogs that may come handy for you. Just a word of warning, you are not alone in this jungle of net. Make a decent protection for you system and your account, there are thief out there waiting for you to bets your precious bucks.

Good Day and take care.

A Good Day to Die [in The Crisis]

Die.... no man! seriously, that's just a bombastic title to distract you [honestly, honour yours and others life]. Now i want to talk something about Indonesian economy again. This time about indonesian company profit.

Well as you my fellow analyst may aware 2007-2008 truly is a golden period for Indonesia, after recovered from a monetary crisis started at 1998, Indonesian firm finally could move on and focus on expansion once again [rather than trying to fix the 1998 mistake], banks credit growth achieve its peak at this period, And it is very lucky for us that the US crisis got it's final breakout on the 4th quarter of this financial year. Assuming the growth was good in the previous quarter, i bet you that there will be a nice amount of shiny golden -great growth- financial statement for this financial year. This could be a good boost to stock market [however the final statement usually out at March].

Look at the fact i gather from detikfinance.com [you can search for the ticker abreviation in Yahoo! Finance [add .jk suffix]] :
- CMNP gain IDR 92 bn for it's 3rd quarter profit [76% from target]
- Lippo Karawaci had a y-o-y profit growth of 14%
- UNTR book profit of IDR 2 tn for it's 3rd quarter [y-o-y rise for 89%]
- Astra International profit is IDR 9 bn higher that it was on the previous year

Just hope guys!!! this crisis period is not long enough to crush those achievement. I hope in 2009 companies have enough time to fix things destroyed in the current crisis before the annual financial report made [for 2009 financial year].

Why Mr. Boediono didn't lower the BI Rates

[back to our main discussion ^_^] some of you may have aware how Mr. Boediono [the Indonesian Central Bank Governor] has decide to raise BI Rate. Yet no one in the news i read give any compliment about this policy, many criticize how the rate will crush the expansion of Indonesian economics.

Since banks play a major role in indonesian economics, most company got their finance from banks, rather than issuing obligation or stocks. The rate hikes will make bank liquidity source become more expensive, and this will cause banks to increase their lending rate also, while the lending rates increase will mean heavier burden for company, in significant way, company will forced to do lay off to spend less money in HR.

looking at the bright side, may be, just may be Mr. Boediono have some concern that in fact, Indonesian economics are build majorly on top of foreign investment, that making the foreign investment come to our economy is important. And with the rates cut in other countries Indonesia will gain from incoming investment. And also, Indonesian banks have problems with their expansion volume also. Note that these years (2007-2008) Indonesian banks book a massive around 20-30% of Lending Growth, this in my opinion will lead to less prudent banking practice [this is also the roots of current US crisis].

so, how the thing will go on is something beyond our reach this time, i have confidence on Mr Boediono personality, personally, i hope he and government as a whole make a right troubleshooting policy for this bumpy moment.

well, for you [and me] my fellow analyst, maybe it is time to include pessimistic scenario in your analysis, just for protection, your own protection [serious mode : ON]. good night and take care.

Remember there is placeto call home

market crash ?! lost saving for big bucks bet in stocks market ?! you short stocks which freezed for weeks?

that's all been bugging many of us lately. With the volatility of market, everything can be happening in the next few second. That's definitely something not good for your health. Tell me if i'm wrong, but just like the common understanding high risk high gain, those high gain stock broker jobs you live in daily life DOES give you a high risk for a heart attack. Do gain that much problem for you? Do gain is everything in your life? (same happen to cut loss ^_^). Maybe, just maybe we should try to relax back, give a second to our rusty brain to understand, at last we all gonna go to our home when EOD is coming.

if home is websites, which sites will you called home? in my sparetime during this rushour i find this http://www.raptureddreams.com , well she's from canada you know! i wonder if canada hit by this global financial turmoil. Read her blog make me feel much more relaxed, that someone is still live her life out there. Doing reading books, watching movie, go to vacation site (she talks about Niagara Falls too ^_^).

these days I've been read more than enough about how market's going down and how it can down DEEPER, god help, have mercy on us trader and broker, is this punishment for us capitalist or is this your mercy giving us chance to look beyond our cramped cubicle, that's life out there.

fellow analyst, broker and trader..........remember, we still alive

Bliss and Bless: Indonesian Economy vs US Subprime crisis

Saving by Moslem's Holiday indonesian market did not experience any massive volatility caused by crisis in US. last night (05-10-2008 approx. 11 PM) I watch press release by Indonesian ministry of finance, ministry of economy and central bank. It's kinda to state that government has perfect insight of the crisis and fully aware of it's impact possibility upon indonesian economy.

Central Bank Governor Mr. Boediono stated that the crucial part of surviving the crisis was :

1. maintain a positive current account (by expanding export and limit import)
2. maintain a sustainable credit growth (current credit growth was 36% y-o-y, central bank sees that it needs to slow down to approx. 6% y-o-y, this policy most likely to anticipate liquidity squish caused by market conservatism upon the crisis).

as far i can understand, i'm fully agree with government about the current condition, we're still good to go but we should anticipate for contagion effect, in this case by fighting liquidity squish both for domestic currency (by limit credit expansion) and foreign currency (by promote export).

If you ask me what next, to be honest i do not know. Since that's all depends on the market now. Depends on the result of maintaining current account we will see up and down in rupiah's exchange rate that's for sure. And depends on the credit growth reform we will see (in my opinion) slowdown in economic growth. But how the swing up and down is completely up to the market to decide. Yes, please play safe these days, there are panic people out there, and it is a bliss and bless for us not to be panic (now).

Chances behind the issue of ITE Bill

Just a few days ago, the ITE Bill got approved by our parliament (DPR), honestly speaking, the topics a bit out of our finance, economy and business topics range, but however indirectly this bill has change playing fields within our nation especially ICT context. you can find the bill here (in Bahasa Indonesia) and the discussion here.

By this bill government has acknowledge much more the important of ICT in Indonesia, and furthermore uphold rules in it, thus violation could be minimized. the implication further strengthen the law upholding process within ICT framework. some has fear that this bill will constrain the freedom that blogger once have. Under this bill you may aware of Fitna movie blocking by Indonesian government few weeks ago.

Within Economy and Business context you may aware that now government require a resgistration of ICT based transaction guarantor such as verisign. in my opinion this would encourage investor to establish such company in Indonesia rather than rely on overseas establishment.

Outlook :: ID National Banking Industry have a potency for 25% growth

Okezone.com, 13 February 2008

Though global recession issue still hanging on the cloud, ID banking sector predicted to growth 25%. Small and Medium Enterprises (ID term :: UMKM) would likely be the growth engine on the sector. Municipal Autonomy has develop inter-region transaction to a different level. Though Rudjito, former CEO of BRI (largest SME oriented Bank in ID) said that oil price and US mortgage crisis still be a constrain for an optimum growth.

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Outlook :: Increasing Debt burden

Kompas Update, 12 February 2008

As stated by General Director of Debt Management at Ministry of Finance, there is an increase in due debt payment in account of exchange rate movement; but however since there is also an increase in debt draw down the overall picture will be likely unaffected. As presented in hearing with tenth commision of the parlemen (Komisi XI DPR); net overseas finance in state budget (APBN) will have an uplift of 4,5 trio IDR; from 16,7 trio IDR to 21,2 trio IDR. On other occassion, Kusfiardi, Coordinator of anti-debt Coalition said that moratorium is the only way that gov. should seek in order to relieve debt burden and also gov. are required to maintain more controlled exchange rate to preserve stability.

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Outlook :: ID Gov's on 2008 Economic Condition

Kontan, 12 February 2008

Though most of official's pencil-paper calculation shows that 2008 is going to be a rough ride, government still shows confidence thus setting target for economic growth to be higher
than it was on the previous year.

Ministry of Finance and Central Bank setting target of 6,2-6,7% a year, while Bappenas (Beurau for National Planning) set an eye on 6,3%. Growth was based on government spending, therefore the punctuality is the key issue here (referring to previous year lag on government spending).

:: Suggested Research Link:

• www.sinarharapan.co.id/berita/0712/05/eko01.html
• www.detikfinance.com/index.php/detik.read/tahun/2008/bulan/01/tgl/13/time/141152/idnews/878312/idkanal/4
• www.iei.or.id/publicationfiles/Prospek%20Ekonomi%20Global,%20Indonesia,%20dan%20Fiskal%202008.pdf
• www.anggaran.depkeu.go.id/web-print-list.asp?ContentId=177
  
• www.bisnis.com/pls/portal30/url/page/bisnis_indonesia_harian_detail?vnw_lang_id=2&ptopik=A03&cdat...
  

:: please comment on broken link

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