Sunday, October 5, 2008

Bliss and Bless: Indonesian Economy vs US Subprime crisis

Saving by Moslem's Holiday indonesian market did not experience any massive volatility caused by crisis in US. last night (05-10-2008 approx. 11 PM) I watch press release by Indonesian ministry of finance, ministry of economy and central bank. It's kinda to state that government has perfect insight of the crisis and fully aware of it's impact possibility upon indonesian economy.

Central Bank Governor Mr. Boediono stated that the crucial part of surviving the crisis was :

  1. maintain a positive current account (by expanding export and limit import)
  2. maintain a sustainable credit growth (current credit growth was 36% y-o-y, central bank sees that it needs to slow down to approx. 6% y-o-y, this policy most likely to anticipate liquidity squish caused by market conservatism upon the crisis).
as far i can understand, i'm fully agree with government about the current condition, we're still good to go but we should anticipate for contagion effect, in this case by fighting liquidity squish both for domestic currency (by limit credit expansion) and foreign currency (by promote export).

If you ask me what next, to be honest i do not know. Since that's all depends on the market now. Depends on the result of maintaining current account we will see up and down in rupiah's exchange rate that's for sure. And depends on the credit growth reform we will see (in my opinion) slowdown in economic growth. But how the swing up and down is completely up to the market to decide. Yes, please play safe these days, there are panic people out there, and it is a bliss and bless for us not to be panic (now).


Rackmount LCD said...

As economy standards have changed in a few past years, the crisis has increased. Also it has affected our society and many more.

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